Tribe Predictions

In following the recent motif here at the Lake Erie Soldiers of looking toward the Indians upcoming season and the upcoming NFL offseason for the Browns, we’ve put together some predictions, analyzing the Tribe’s current roster and spring training invitees, we are making our predictions for the opening day 25 man roster. Not stopping there, we also looked up players career and seasonal numbers to project the season stats. The only downside is that we are not taking into account injuries, call-ups and send-downs, trades and all things of that nature. However, with our projections we will loosely predict how many games we think each player will play based off of where we predict them (starter/bench etc). Obviously we are not professional statisticians or anything like that, but it makes for interesting conversation and gets us excited for the season. Enjoy…

Starting Lineup:                                                                                                                                                                                             Bench:

1. Grady Sizemore CF                                                                                                                – Trevor Crowe OF

2. Asdrubal Cabrera SS                                                                                                             – Andy Marte 1B/3B

3. Jhonny Peralta 3B                                                                                                                 – Mike Redmond C

4. Shin-Soo Choo RF                                                                                                                 – Mark Grudzielanek INF

5. Travis Hafner DH

6. Matt LaPorta 1B

7. Austin Kearns LF

8. Wyatt Toregas C

9. Luis Valbuena 2B

Starting Rotation: Bullpen:

1. Jake Westbrook                                                                                                                   – Chris Perez (Setup)

2. Fausto Carmona                                                                                                                  – Kerry Wood (Closer)

3. Aaron Laffey                                                                                                                        – Rafael Perez

4. Justin Masterson                                                                                                                – Tony Sipp

5. David Huff                                                                                                                            – Mitch Talbot

– Jensen Lewis

– Jess Todd

There is the 25 man roster that we think will start the season. Kearns will probably not be much more then a place holder for Michael Brantley who will most likely be up in the big leagues pretty quickly. Grudzielanek will be a very good utility guy, he can play all the positions and hits for a good average. Toregas is the lesser of 2 evils in the catching department, and I can’t see the team carrying 3 backstops to start the year. Redmond has a guaranteed MLB contract, so that gives him the edge of Marson. This is definitely Marte’s last chance with the Tribe, and he will see a good amount of playing time spelling LaPorta and Hafner, as well as Peralta. Crowe and Kearns will probably split time almost 50-50. Marson, I think, will start on in AAA backing up Santana, and would get called up before Santana if Torregas struggles.

The rotation is pretty straight forward, I think the Tribe either deals Jeremy Sowers, or sends him back down to AAA. I don’t know if anyone will take him off of waivers, so the team could possibly keep him. Talbot will outperform him in Spring Training and earn the spot starter/long man job. The rest of the bullpen is pretty self explanatory. Wood, obviously, will be there, Chris Perez will be the main set up guy with Raffy Perez seeing time there as well. Todd and Lewis will be on the shortest leash, and Sipp will most likely start out as the lefty specialist.

Here is what we were able to come up with for statistical projections, and please, feel free to critique and provide feedback. You will notice some stats being omitted, and that is merely because it is pretty difficult to predict how many hit by pitches and errors that will cause hitters to reach base, making OBP and Slugging very difficult to predict. For hitters, the stat categories will be, at-bats, hits, doubles, triples, homeruns, rbis, stolen bases, strike outs, walks, and batting average.

Player             Games       At Bats   Hits   Runs     Doubles    Triples     HR     RBI    SB            K          BB          AVG

Sizemore   –    159        –  613        –  183   – 136 –   46      –        8   –          30 –  82   –  38 –        142      –115 –   .298

Cabrera     –    145        –  568        – 177    – 115        –  53 –         5       –   11       – 62   –  24     –     110     –  62      –  .312

Peralta       –     136      –  531         – 136    – 72         –  31        –       1         –  21   –  84    –   1        – 150      –  41    .256

Choo          –  162 638 196 –  112        – 53 –   13 – 27     – 113 –  25      – 156 –       64     –  .307

Hafner       – 125          –  470         – 129    – 51        –  22          –        0      – 21       – 62    – 0         – 123      – 93      –  .275

LaPorta       – 140        – 551          – 158    – 77         – 38          –     2          –  26     –  79  – 0         – 78        – 72     –  .287

Kearns         – 83           – 294        – 65       – 39         – 13             – 1              –  9     –  35     – 2         –  60       – 44      -.221

Toregas        – 77           – 301       – 70        – 31         – 14              -0          –  5     –    31       -0        –  51          – 19      –  .233

Valbuena     – 138        – 566          -151      – 70       – 38             –    10     – 15        – 55      -5         -128       – 41     –  .267

Grudzielanek   – 62     -271          – 75        – 36        – 19              – 3            –  2       – 21     – 3            – 44          -21    – .277

Crowe              – 80         – 301        – 69       -39        – 15               – 4               -2      – 28      -18        -56           – 20   – .229

Marte              – 65         – 258          – 61       – 35       – 18              – 1            – 14       – 40   – 0       – 49          – 46   –  .236

Redmond         – 73        – 231      – 56           – 22       – 7               -0               -1          -19      -0          -21        -29     -.242

Some of the stats are kind of optimistic, but they are a product of the career numbers and potential of the player when healthy. I think Hafner will be closer to the way he played back in 2006, but still just a shadow of who he used to be. Shin-Soo Choo will have a monster year, and a healthy Sizemore will be very productive.

Pitchers                  G           GS         IP             W – L             K        BB         R       ER        ERA          Saves

Westbrook          – 32 32 202.1 –  16 – 10       – 96       – 62    –110 – 97 –  4.31              0

Carmona            – 27        -27        -175.2      –  11 – 9         – 135   – 71 – 93      – 86          – 4.41              0

Laffey                  – 30       – 30        -183        –  17 – 8         – 84     – 66       – 84     – 80    – 3.93             0

Masterson          – 29       – 29        – 198.1    –  12 – 12       – 165 – 62     – 96     – 88      – 3.99               0

Huff                     – 28      – 28          – 165.2    – 10 –  14 – 82      – 69     – 92     – 89          – 4.83        0

Wood                  – 66       – 0            – 65          – 5 – 5            – 74      – 21       – 22     – 22     – 3.05          44

C. Perez               – 62        – 0           – 64         –  2 – 1           – 77        – 30      – 20     – 18     – 2.53 5

R. Perez               – 68        – 0            – 71        – 5 – 4            – 75       – 26       – 26     – 26    – 3.30          2

Todd                     – 39       – 0              – 42.2    – 1 – 4            – 37       – 26       – 29      – 27    – 5.69         0

Lewis                    – 42       – 0           – 47         – 4 – 3             – 66        – 30      – 21      – 21      – 4.02        1

Talbot                    – 25       -11          – 69         – 3 – 5            – 61       – 32         – 39     -36     – 4.69         0

Sipp                       – 65         -0          – 54         – 1 – 1              – 60     -19        – 18       – 18      – 3.00       2

While there will obviously be more then 12 guys to pitch for the Tribe this year, hopefully not as many as last year, we think its a pretty accurate estimation if each guy was around for the entire season. Admittedly, some math might be off with all the wins and losses adding up to 162, or the games involved, because it is impossible to know how much each guy will pitch, its a little easier to predict based off of past stats for the position players.

Like I mentioned this is just a best guess and it is designed out of fun and to spark interest and conversation about the team and it’s potential in 2010. If my calculations are correct, this predicts the team (based off of pitchers records) to be 86-76. A good improvement off of the previous season and a step forward. It is all rough estimates, but I personally feel that this team is capable of finished above .500 and competing for the AL Central crown. While I am not predicting them to win the division, I am predicting them to finish 3rd. Behind the Twins and the Tigers, barely ahead of the White Sox and Royals as the division will probably be fairly close and competitive once again. It seems like because of cash flow issues the Indians were the only team to not make improvements, and it will show, but there is a solid team in Cleveland and it could catch people off guard.

If anyone thinks I am grossly over valuing or under valuing a player please call me on it, I would love to get feed back. This was just a project for me to spend some time on since I am stuck in a blizzard in DC with no where to go. I considered putting in Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley, but with the slim possibilities of them breaking camp with the team, it would be tough to work that out. Santana probably won’t come up until June, and Brantley could be up much sooner depending on how is offense looks. I did account for the fact that Manny Acta said he would probably have the team run more, and use the speed of Sizemore, Choo and Cabrera to the team’s advantage. Prediction for the team’s MVP is Shin-Soo Choo and team’s best pitcher is Aaron Laffey.

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